IMethod
Independence is a process, not an attitude
Not chasing the crowd is not a personality trait; it is the result of writing the thesis down, defining what would prove it wrong, and reviewing it against evidence rather than price.
03
Method
A method built to survive being wrong.
Bambang Wirayuda's research method in four layers: global macro, technology and semiconductors, corporate fundamentals and portfolio risk — coverage, process and principles.
Research Domains
Five ways into the same question.
Each layer has its own evidence, its own failure modes, and its own place in the decision. Switch between them to see what each one is responsible for.
The frame before the trade
Global macro & market regime
Every position is a bet on a regime, whether the investor admits it or not. Macro work is about identifying that regime early and knowing what would invalidate it.
- Policy rates, inflation and liquidity conditions
- Growth expectations versus market pricing
- Cross-asset signals: credit, the dollar, volatility
- Regime change — what turns first, and what confirms it
Deliverable01 / 05
Regime map · risk budget · scenario set
Research output is written to be tested — every conclusion carries the evidence that would falsify it.
Coverage
Where the attention goes.
An honest description of research allocation: technology and macro dominate, because that is where the cycle is currently being written.
Illustrative allocation of research attention across the five coverage layers — not investment performance.
- Technology & AI27%
- Global macro24%
- Equity fundamentals21%
- Semiconductors18%
- Portfolio & risk10%
Process
Four steps, repeated without shortcuts.
The order matters. A position is only sized after the valuation range exists — and only held while the evidence still supports it.
01
Screen
Start from the regime and the cycle, then narrow the universe to businesses where the setup is measurable.
02
Analyse
Read the statements, test the economics, and separate a durable advantage from a temporary story.
03
Value
Build a valuation range around defensible assumptions and ask what the market is already paying for.
04
Size & protect
Only then does a position earn capital — sized to the risk, with an exit defined before entry.
Execution
How the mandate is actually executed.
Six responsibilities, written as they are practised: in sequence, with the risk work never separated from the idea.
Select a line to expand it.
Tracking policy, rates, inflation and liquidity across regions to understand which regime the market is actually trading in.
MacroResearch Notes
Three principles that survived the cycles.
Not forecasts — working beliefs, refined by twenty-five years of being occasionally and expensively wrong.
IIRisk
Capital protection compounds faster than conviction
A large drawdown is not only a loss of money; it is a loss of future opportunity. Avoiding the avoidable is the cheapest source of long-term return available to any investor.
IIITechnology
Technology is a capex story before it is a narrative
Every technology cycle eventually has to be paid for by someone. Following the spending — and the returns it produces — is more useful than following the excitement it generates.
Contact
Bring a specific question.
The most useful conversations start with a position, a sector or a risk that needs a second opinion.